Hythe West: Westward Ho!
The recent Hythe West by-election for Kent County Council was held under unusual circumstances, to put it mildly.
The results can’t fully be seen as a signpost for the major round of local elections on May 4th – but they deserve careful reflection for a few key messages or signs of where local voters are coming from at the moment.
The background was the shocking revelation of an apparent history of fascist sympathy on the part of the previous incumbent, Conservative Andy Weatherhead. He was forced to stand down, creating the by-election at a cost to the public purse reportedly adding up to a cool £50,000.
The outcome was a clear victory for Shepway Greens, with their candidate Jenni Hawkins clearing up just under 44% of the vote. Conservatives came in second with 30%, Labour something of a distant third with 10.7% and two independent candidates, including Andy Weatherhead – standing again to try and hold his seat after the bad publicity – clocking up over 15% of the vote.
So what were the issues and what are the messages from this key election?
Firstly, this election raised issues of due diligence in the selection process.
The local Conservative Party got a hammering for every allowing Andy Weatherhead to stand. Given the fury which erupted over this story, it seems fair to ask if all of the other parties could set out how they ensure a sound process for vetting local representatives in this and future elections.
Secondly, the campaigning predictably focused on messages of trust, integrity and local track record.
The message here for the May elections is that voters want to see somebody who has been active for the long-term on behalf of their community – this was one reason why voters supported the Green candidate, who had worked on the Town Council and was part of a vocal campaign against the local travesty of planning which has been visible at Princes Parade.
Thirdly the turnout was low – not unusual in a by-election, but possibly a warning that this could be a sign of voter apathy.
Many contacts talk of cynical despair not only at the state of national politics, which has almost achieved farcical conditions; they also feel either apathy or anger at the state of local politics, widely seen as lazy, over-obsessed with property deals rather than people services. This is a dangerous condition for democracy – you get what you’re given if you don’t use your vote for a positive choice.
Fourth: the balance of the vote was fairly predictable and sends warning messages to all major parties.
The Conservatives saw their vote collapse by a massive 19%, very much along the same lines as in national polls.
This means that – as with the national position – it is not necessarily showing an enthusiasm for the obvious alternative, which is Labour at national level.
It does show a growing gulf of mistrust and a vote of no confidence in current political leadership.
For Labour, there was not much to celebrate with the actual number of votes dropping a couple of hundred from 2021.
The interesting factor was the decision of local LibDems not to stand a candidate – which played a significant part in ensuring that the Conservatives were not allowed back in as a result of splitting the ‘progressive vote’.
And perhaps that is the take away from Hythe West: if the appetite is out there for change, then some serious thinking is needed on the part of voters, but perhaps also the local political parties. Tactical voting may be a crucial factor to deliver a change in Folkestone and Hythe District Council on May 4th.
The way in which the political parties end up splitting the vote in each of the 30 wards will also be crucial.
We’ll be doing some further pieces – and even some predictions – on how this might pan out in the next few weeks.
Onward.
