Puff Psephology!

Psephology: the statistical study of elections and trends in voting.

Jon O’Connor puts a small wager on small changes with significant impact in the May local elections.

These local elections matter more than most, with economic and social division and uncertainty at a peak both locally and nationally.

So the results being announced on May 5th, just a few weeks away now, are going to be interesting…..

Let’s start with a look at 2019 results. The last local elections saw a significant turnout, coinciding with a General Election and turmoil in national politics: the Labour leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, controversial Conservative Boris Johnson, a focus throughout the campaign on the divisive Brexit saga.

The local elections last time around saw a shock decline in Conservative numbers of Councillors and a simultaneous breakthrough for Labour, masterminded over several years by the late and universally respected Christopher Deane. At the same time Folkestone Town Council became a Labour majority led administration.

2019 Folkestone and Hythe District Council election overview
Party		Seats	Gains	Losses	Net +/-		Seats %		Votes %		Votes		+/−
	Conservative	13	1	10	9		43.3		36.4		22,072		-2
	Green	6	6	0	6		20.0		25.2		15,268		12
	Labour	6	5	0	5		20.0		18.8		11,422		9
	Liberal Democrats	2	2	0	2		6.7		11.3		6,821		1
	UKIP	2	1	6	5		6.7		3.6		2,162		-16
	Independent	1	1	0	1		3.3		4.0		2,423		-2
	Foundation Party	0	0	0			0.0		0.6		384		New
	Socialist (GB)	0	0	0			0.0		0.1		59		New

Apathy and democracy….

The turnout in 2019 was a staggering 70%. It is unlikely to be more than half of that this time around.
There was a turnout of just 28% (2021 40%) for the Hythe West KCC by-election, despite this being a high-profile division. Dress it up how you will: this was a possible warning sign of voter apathy;
Labour swallowed a drop to just under 400 votes and the Green Party owed victory to just over 1500 supporters.

The next District Council is very likely to stack up very differently one way or another: the final figure of ‘wins’ for each group will be affected by several unusual factors.
So what’s our take on the outlook for May – now that all candidates are declared and manifestos of varying sorts are out there to examine? Here’s the picture, having looked in detail at each Ward and the field of candidates.

All change…

Factors which are at play will vary ward by ward across the District Council – we are expecting the following:

1. LOW TURNOUT –
   • The combination of voter apathy and Voter ID issues will push turnout below May 2019 levels
   • Postal votes count & may be cast by Monday 17th April – they’re due to land from April 15th
   • And…. previous elections have proved the power of the postal vote – favouring Tory votes
2. TORY DISILLUSION
   • The national mood is swinging towards change – this is likely to be reflected in the local mood.
   • Expect a lower than usual “loyalty” vote – as the conservative-leaning majority stay at home
   • But another “but” – not voting conservative does not guarantee voting for another party.
3. CHANGING OF THE GUARD
   • Familiar faces are standing down from the current listing of Councillors – testing Party loyalty
   • A number have changed brand recently, moving to a rival political party – testing personal loyalty
   • Perhaps more significant are the new major Party candidates who are as yet little known to voters
4. INDEPENDENT STAND
   • Some of the old guard have become Independent candidates
     There are well known and lesser known candidates seeking election without Party affiliation.
5. MAJORITY RULES
   • One or two Independents might win a seat affecting key wards like Folkestone Central
   • This in turn could affect the chances of a clear overall majority result for any of the major parties
   • That does not preclude the group with the largest number forming the new adminstration.
6. THE BIG ISSUE
   • Elections can turn on key local issues – like the current furore over the Grace Hill Library
   • The Council’s approach to investment was highlighted in the recent approval of Otterpool Park
   • Our local environment is a concern, with sewage in our sea and the Princes Parade development

So finally: here’s a prediction of how we think the balance of power will fall after May.

Labour 8 (5)
Conservative 8 (10)
Greens 7 (6)
Lib Dems 4 (3)
Independents 3 (4)
UKIP 0 (2)

We may be looking at a LibDem/Green coalition or a Labour minority administration….

(Current Councillor figure for each party is shown in brackets)

We wish everyone standing a good campaign – and we hope our community gets a good result on May 4th.